What Does a Limited Iran-Israel Escalation Look Like? | NextBigFuture.com

The direct Iranian missile attack did not do direct damage to Israel. However, it has opened the door to direct military action between Iran and Israel.

Iran and Israel are 620 miles apart. Iran is almost 2.4 times the land area of Texas. It is slightly larger than the state of Alaska. Iran’s dimensions are roughly 800 miles by 800 miles.

Th F-16 and F-35 jets that Israel has have a range of about 800-1000 miles. This is with extra fuel tanks on the F-16. Israel has limited in air refueling. A smaller amount of the air force could reach Iran mid-flight refueling but they would then be striking maybe 200 miles inside Iran with a small part of their force.

A 900 mile strike would require refueling after about 500 miles, hitting something 300-400 miles further about 100-200 miles inside of Iran and then flying back out and refueling again before landing. This assumes using about 100 miles of fuel over the target. The missiles fired might reach another 10-40 miles.

UPDATE: There are reports that Israel will strike Iran back. It will remain a tactical surprise but Iran now knows that likely within some number of days. Israel will launch an attack.

Analysis of Long Strike Capabilities of Israel and Iran

Israel would need to base out of Saudi Arabia or the UAE to get operational effectiveness.

If the US is supporting only for Israel’s defense then the US would not be providing the large aerial refueling capability or access to US bases in other countries around Iran.

Israel like Iran do have some longer range missiles and drones.

Iran’s force also have the same range problem, which was part of the reason the attack over the weekend had no airplanes. The Iranian Migs and F-14s also do not have the range.

Iran used 150 ballistic missiles. Iran used most of its stockpile of long range. Iran has about 3000 missiles but most of those have shorter ranges. The long range drones and missiles used by Iran was what they had that could reach Israel.

Israel can use the Mossad spy agency for assassinations and sabotage. Israel can use cyberattacks.

Israel can also increase direct actions against Iran’s Quds forces (Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran militias in Yemen, Syria and Iraq). The Iranian funded militias are the forces that can engage Israel and the militias are the ones that Israel can curb stomp if needed to send a message of resolve.

Israel has already been exchanging attacks with Hezbollah for the past 6 months that his killed over 500 Hezbollah forces.

The Iranian leadership and Israel’s leadership seem to have the political need to show its citizen’s that they will not stand by while they are being attacked. This seems to be a motivation for using more of the small direct attack and direct actions between the two countries.