Tesla AI FSD Better Than Human in 2025 ? | NextBigFuture.com
Tesla is on the verge of superhuman driving in the next few months. Tesla is starting the release of a vastly improved FSD (full self driving) version 13 this weekend. It is feature complete for unsupervised driving.
There were 50 Tesla vehicles driven without human drivers on Robotaxi day a few weeks ago.
Tesla vehicles are being used to give supervised ridehailing to Tesla employees. This service has been operating for about one year.
FSD will be vastly improved for safety to reach beyond human capability around the middle of 2025.
The Tesla AI team has been able to predict when they would release FSD versions with capabilities. This is a change. Tesla AI had big goals for October 2024 and those goals were achieved.
There are now big goals for version 13.3 to go wide release by the end of November 2024.
Tesla will have large financial impacts just from Version 13.3. This version will be approved for use in China and Europe and increase the number of Tesla buyers of cars and FSD. This would be six times the third quarter FSD revenue and profit. Q3 2024 had $340 million of FSD revenue. Having it feature complete will mean 90-100% revenue recognition. There will be 20% more of the FSD sale recognized for accounting purposes. Adding $1.5 billion of quarter profit for a software margin business would triple or quadruple the value of Tesla shares.
Tesla will be able to ramp up the Tesla employee supervised driving program in California and Texas that is already operating to ten times the size of Waymo today. Waymo offers 150,000 rides per week. There are 50,000 Tesla employees in California and Texas. If all Tesla employees used the service this would be 100,000 rides per day for commuting and adding two other rides for other activities per day would be 200,000 rides per day or about 1.4 million rides per week.
Tesla plans to expand to an unsupervised ridehailing service in California and Texas. If it is safer than human driving then California and Texas have over one million Tesla cars. This could rapidly become 100 to 1000 times larger than Waymo.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
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